The SCS Risk Landscape

Understanding the potential impact of severe convective storms is critical for effective risk management and planning. For this analysis, “at risk” refers to properties with a risk score above a specific threshold, indicating a higher potential for damage from hail, tornado winds, or straight-line winds. This assessment is based on Cotality’s proprietary risk score models, which evaluate the likelihood and potential severity of such events at the property level. These models combine historical storm data meteorological insights and property-specific vulnerability factors to calculate a risk score.

Aggregating this data at the metro and state levels allows for broader insights into regional risk variations. Users of these models can interpret the results as a comprehensive representation of relative risk across different geographies enabling them to prioritize mitigation strategies or allocate resources accordingly. They support portfolio management by identifying high-risk areas and ensuring a balanced distribution of policies. They can also aid in claims management by anticipating potential claims volumes and encouraging policyholders to adopt loss mitigation measures such as storm-resistant building materials.

By using these scores, insurers can simulate potential losses and adapt to evolving climate patterns. This approach not only minimizes risk but also allows insurers to offer tailored products, build trust with policyholders and enhance resilience in the face of increasingly severe weather events.

Where the Most Homes Are at Risk

Cotality estimated the number of and total RCV of homes at risk to hailstorms, tornado winds and straight-line winds at the metro and state levels. Texas leads all states in hail, tornado and straight-line wind risk concentration due to its size, geographic position relative to SCS activity and numerous large concentrations of homes.

Hailstorm Risk

Cotality Hailstorm Risk Score estimated over 41 million homes at moderate or greater risk to hail of one inch or greater with an RCV of $13.4 trillion. 47% of these homes are in Texas, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana and Minnesota.

Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to 1" Hail


Figure 5: Map of number of homes at moderate or greater risk to one inch or greater hail by state. Source: Cotality

Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to 1" Hail

Top 3 States


Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

8,699,137

Reconstruction Cost Value (Billions USD)

2,715.4

Texas

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

4,074,341

Reconstruction Cost Value (Billions USD)

1,639.3

Illinois

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

2,313,962

Reconstruction Cost Value (Billions USD)

764.7

Missouri

See Full Data

Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to 1" Hail

Top 3 Metro Areas


Metro Area

Chicago, IL

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

2,946,726

Reconstruction Cost Value

(Billions USD)

$1,292.0

Metro Area

Dallas, TX

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

2,258,155

Reconstruction Cost Value

(Billions USD)

$805.7

Metro Area

Houston, TX

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

2,134,409

Reconstruction Cost Value

(Billions USD)

$728.4

See Full Data

The Chicago metropolitan area is the most at risk, with nearly 3 million homes and over $1.2 trillion at risk to hail of one inch or greater.


Tornado Wind Risk:

Cotality Tornado Wind Risk Score estimated over 66 million homes at moderate or greater risk to EF0 tornado and greater with an RCV of over $21 trillion. 41% of these homes are in Texas, Florida, Illinois, Georgia and North Carolina.

Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to EF0+ Tornado


Figure 6: Map of number of homes at moderate or greater risk to EF0 or greater tornado winds by state. Source: Cotality

Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to EF0+ Tornado

Top 3 Metro Areas


Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

8,083,271

Reconstruction Cost Value (Billions USD)

$2,421.6

Texas

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

8,022,349

Reconstruction Cost Value (Billions USD)

$2,381.5

Florida

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

4,240,552

Reconstruction Cost Value (Billions USD)

1,855.5

Illinois

See Full Data

Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to EF0+ Tornado

Top 3 Metro Areas


Metro Area

Chicago, IL

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

3,040,377

Reconstruction Cost Value

(Billions USD)

$1,464.1

Metro Area

Dallas, TX

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

2,169,791

Reconstruction Cost Value

(Billions USD)

$730.9

Metro Area

Miami, FL

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

2,077,098

Reconstruction Cost Value

(Billions USD)

$585.2

See Full Data

The Chicago metropolitan area is the most at-risk, with over 3 million homes and over $1.4 trillion at risk to an EF0 or greater tornado, followed by Dallas, TX and Miami, FL.


Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to 65 MPH+ Wind

Cotality Straight-Line Wind Risk Score estimated over 53 million homes at moderate or greater risk to 65mph and greater winds with an RCV of $18.6 trillion. 36% of these homes are in Texas, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio and Michigan.

Figure 7: Map of number of homes at moderate or greater risk to 65mph winds or greater by state. Source: Cotality

Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to 65 MPH+ Wind

Top 3 States


Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

4,840,859

Reconstruction Cost Value (Billions USD)

$1,467.6

Texas

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

4,240,552

Reconstruction Cost Value (Billions USD)

$1,855.5

Illinois

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

3,638,885

Reconstruction Cost Value (Billions USD)

$1,101.6

North Carolina

See Full Data

Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to 65 MPH+ Wind

Top 3 Metro Areas


Metro Area

Chicago, IL

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

3,040,377

Reconstruction Cost Value

(Billions USD)

$1,464.1

Metro Area

New York, NY

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

2,286,266

Reconstruction Cost Value

(Billions USD)

$1,236.7

Metro Area

Dallas, TX

Number of Homes with Moderate or Greater Risk

2,169,791

Reconstruction Cost Value

(Billions USD)

$730.9

See Full Data

The Chicago metropolitan area is the most at risk, with over 3 million homes and over $1.4 trillion at risk to winds of 65 mph or greater.


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