Climate Resiliency for SCS
A key question asked with regards to SCS is: “How will the peril and its impacts shift in the future?” Changes in the environmental conditions like warmer temperatures, increased atmospheric moisture and shifts in wind shear patterns are altering the distribution of risk across the U.S.
Regions that are currently frequently impacted by SCS may experience changes in storm activity, with decreases in some areas and increases in others. In addition, there is a growing need to increase the climate resilience of homes because the season during which SCS activity is greatest is lengthening, with storms starting earlier in spring and extending later into fall.
These changes pose challenges for risk management, particularly as population and infrastructure continue to grow in areas increasingly exposed to these storms.
The baseline climate scenario serves as a reference point for comparing the current environment with the risks that may arise in the future. The CoreLogic SCS Risk Score model highlights the concentration of SCS risk in the Central U.S., particularly in Northern Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska (Figure 8).
Distribution of SCS Risk at Present Day
Figure 8: The distribution of SCS risk at present day. Source: CoreLogic, 2025
SCS risk extends eastward into Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama along the Gulf Coast as well as into Iowa, Illinois and Indiana.
But how might Figure 8 change with varying climate conditions over different lengths of time? CoreLogic developed its Climate Risk Analytics (CRA) suite to estimate risk under future climate scenarios. The CRA leverages multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and different lengths of time to estimate risk on a zero to 100 score.
In this report, CoreLogic analyzed SCS risk under three different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5) out to two different time horizons (by 2030 and 2050).
The Short-Term: Change in Risk by 2030
Figure 9: The change in SCS risk for the RCP4.5, RCP7.0 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios for the year 2030. Source: CoreLogic
The Long-Term: Change in Risk by 2050
Figure 10: The change in SCS risk for the RCP4.5, RCP7.0, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios for the year 2050. Source: CoreLogic
RCP4.5 represents a moderate-emissions pathway, while RCP7.0 and RCP8.5 correspond to higher and high-emissions scenarios, respectively. Higher emissions amplify changes to SCS risk, leading to a more pronounced redistribution of risk and increased storm intensity driven by elevated atmospheric instability (Figure 9).
By the year 2050, these three emissions scenarios will lead to even more divergent, drastic outcomes. The most significant changes in SCS risk are in the South and the Midwest (Figure 10). These regions could face disproportionately higher impacts from large hail, powerful winds and tornadoes.
Across these scenarios, increasing atmospheric moisture amplifies storm intensity, leading to larger hail, stronger winds and more destructive tornadoes. These findings highlight the importance of adjusting risk management strategies, such as refining insurance models and strengthening infrastructure in emerging high-risk areas, while emphasizing the need for emissions mitigation to prevent severe long-term outcomes.
Climate risk analytics that can estimate how SCS risks may change under different RCP climate scenarios is crucial for helping insurers manage risk. These tools enable insurers to anticipate and adapt to the evolving risks associated with climate change by providing insights into the potential distribution of future storm events.
This information helps refine insurance risk models. It also supports long-term portfolio management, allowing insurers to balance their geographic risk exposure.
By preparing for the dynamic impacts of climate change, insurers can manage risk effectively and contribute to the resilience of communities facing increased SCS risks.
Know Your Risk. Accelerate Your Recovery.™
Severe convective storms bring significant and evolving challenges. Advances in weather verification and risk assessment technologies have been invaluable in refining underwriting practices, expediting claims management and identifying high-risk areas. However, the increasing intensity and shifting patterns of SCS activity, driven by climate change, emphasize the need for continued innovation and proactive resilience planning. By leveraging tools like CoreLogic’s risk scores and climate analytics, insurers can better anticipate and mitigate the impacts of severe weather, safeguarding properties and communities as the risk landscape evolves. High quality input data is the foundation of effective underwriting, pricing, and risk management strategies. From an accurate assessment of what is on the ground — such as structure-level building characteristics that comprise CoreLogic’s nationwide property database — to realistic representations of real-world meteorological activity — such as the data captured by CoreLogic’s Weather Verification Technology used in this report — having confidence in data accuracy is the difference between resilience and catastrophe.
About CoreLogic CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences, that build better relationships, strengthen businesses, and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
©2025 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. While all of the content and information is believed to be accurate, the content and information is provided “as is” with no guarantee, representation, or warranty, express or implied, of any kind including but not limited to as to the merchantability, non-infringement of intellectual property rights, completeness, accuracy, applicability, or fitness, in connection with the content or information or the products or any AI features or content thereof and assumes no responsibility or liability whatsoever for the content or information or the products or any AI features or content thereof or any reliance thereon. CoreLogic® is the registered trademark of CoreLogic, Inc. or its affiliates or subsidiaries.