2024
Hurricane Risk Landscape
CoreLogic estimated the number of single- and multifamily residential properties across the U.S. Gulf and East coasts at risk to hurricane wind and storm surge flooding. The number and total reconstruction cost value (RCV) of residential properties presented in this section represent the value of building stock in moderate to high-risk locations across the Gulf and East Coast states.
The CoreLogic Hurricane Wind and Coastal Storm Surge Risk Scores quantifies the hazard of wind and storm surge risk, respectively, at every parcel in the U.S. The models provide information tailored to the specific geographical location of a property, enabling property owners, insurers, and policymakers to understand the unique risk in different regions of the country.
Risk scores may inform urban planning and policy development decisions including delineating moderate- and high-risk areas, making changes to zoning regulations or designing infrastructure improvements to enhance resilience and minimize damage. Organizations that understand the potential impact of hurricane winds and storm surge damage can best prepare for and respond to natural disasters by pre-positioning resources, evacuating at-risk areas, and communicating risk to the public.
National Analysis
Hurricane Wind
CoreLogic identified more than 32.7 million residential properties from Texas to Maine with a combined RCV of $10.8 trillion at moderate or greater risk of sustaining damage from hurricane-force winds. Table 1 below presents the cumulative number of homes and combined RCV by increasing levels of hurricane wind risk.
Hurricane Wind Risk Level
MODERATE OR GREATER - 32,744,262 HOMES
HIGH OR GREATER - 22,776,568 HOMES
VERY HIGH OR GREATER - 14,929,120 HOMES
EXTREME OR GREATER - 6,437,350 HOMES
Table 1: Number and total reconstruction cost value of homes exposed to increasing hurricane wind risk level in 2024. Source: CoreLogic, 2024
Storm Surge
Approximately 7.7 million of the above properties, with a combined RCV of $2.3 trillion, have direct or indirect coastal exposure – making them susceptible to storm surge flooding. Table 2 below shows the number of homes at risk by hurricane category indicating the relative risk due to storm surge. The values are cumulative, where a less severe hurricane (i.e., Category 1) would likely impact only homes with the greatest risk (i.e., in low-lying areas close to the coast). A stronger hurricane (i.e., Category 2 - 5) would inundate homes with the greatest risk, plus any additional properties with lower degrees of risk. The most severe hurricanes would inundate all homes with at least some storm surge risk.
Saffir-Simpson Category
SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY 1 - 1,304,612 HOMES
SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY 2 - 2,805,963 HOMES
SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY 3 - 4,553,182 HOMES
SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY 4 - 6,602,039 HOMES
SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY 5 - 7,735,659 HOMES
Table 2: Number and total reconstruction cost value of homes exposed to storm surge flooding by increasing hurricane intensity (e.g., Saffir-Simpson Scale) in 2024. Source: CoreLogic, 2024
Metro Analysis
The potential for substantial economic and insured losses underscores the importance of identifying and mitigating risks associated with hurricane winds and storm surge in these key metropolitan areas.
The risk profiles of different communities across the U.S. can vary. This is evident in the number and total RCV of residential properties by risk category for select metropolitan areas like Miami, New York City and Houston.[1]
Climate change is causing sea level to rise and exposing communities to more regular and severe storm surge flooding.
Population density influences risk assessment in these metro areas. Areas with high population density, low lying coastal areas and a history of major hurricanes are much more vulnerable to hurricane damage. However, some properties in the same metro area will have more or less risk depending on how the elevation changes and how the barriers block the water from moving inland.
These cities have experienced significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms in the past. Miami is also no stranger to hurricanes, given its geographical location in a region frequently affected by tropical storms. New York, for example, faced the devastating effects of Superstorm Sandy in 2012, which caused widespread flooding and infrastructure damage. Houston has encountered its share of hurricane-related challenges, such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017, which led to catastrophic flooding in the area. The historical vulnerability of these cities underscores the ongoing risk they face from hurricane winds and storm surge.
Miami, New York and Houston are densely populated metropolitan areas with extensive urban infrastructure. The concentration of people, buildings, and critical infrastructure increases the potential for widespread damage and disruption in the event of a hurricane. Storm surge poses a significant threat to coastal cities like Miami and New York, where densely populated areas are situated near the coastline. Additionally, Houston's sprawling urban landscape, coupled with its susceptibility to flooding, heightens the risk of hurricane-related impacts on the city's infrastructure and residents.
These metropolitan areas are economic powerhouses with significant commercial and financial activities. New York City is a global financial hub, while Houston is renowned for its energy industry, particularly oil and gas. Miami serves as a major center for international trade, tourism and finance. Disruptions caused by hurricanes in these cities can have far-reaching economic consequences, not only locally but also nationally and internationally.
[1] The Miami, New York and Houston metro areas studied in this analysis are defined by the Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) of that region. In Miami, this includes the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL area; in New York City, this includes the New York City-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA area; in Houston, this includes Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland, TX.
Some metropolitan areas are much more vulnerable to storm surge risk.
Metro Area
New York
Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to Hurricane Winds
3,765,489
Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to Storm Surge
878,226
Reconstruction Cost Value ($B) Hurricane Wind
$1,961.1
Reconstruction Cost Value ($B) Storm Surge
$415.4
Metro Area
Houston
Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to Hurricane Winds
2,092,308
Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to Storm Surge
192,937
Reconstruction Cost Value ($B) Hurricane Wind
$671.3
Reconstruction Cost Value ($B) Storm Surge
$52.6
Metro Area
Miami
Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to Hurricane Winds
2,048,827
Number of Homes at Moderate or Greater Risk to Storm Surge
509,133
Reconstruction Cost Value ($B) Hurricane Wind
$511.4
Reconstruction Cost Value ($B) Storm Surge
$124.0
Table 3: Number and total reconstruction cost value of homes within the New York, Houston and Miami regions. Source: CoreLogic, 2024
Building Codes Matter
The CoreLogic Hurricane Wind and Coastal Storm Surge Risk Scores used in the analysis above quantify the hazard at each property. Wind Resiliency™ is a new CoreLogic solution that takes into account a building’s individual characteristics in assessing a property’s resilience to wind damage. This solution integrates hazard assessments, detailed property characteristics (e.g., size and age of building, type of construction material and building use) and local building codes (e.g., construction practice standards) to provide comprehensive insights. This holistic perspective enables accurate claim likelihood and severity assessment for individual buildings, offering valuable insights for risk management.
Figure 1: The average CoreLogic Wind Resiliency score in each county in Florida. The model scores properties on a scale of 1 to 100, where a higher number indicates a home is less resilient to hurricane damage. Source: CoreLogic, 2024
Data from Wind Resiliency indicates that Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, the three most populated counties in the state, had scores of 47, 45, and 35 respectively, meaning moderate low to moderate levels of resiliency. The lowest resiliency was found in Charlotte County, with a score of 56 in the low category, and the highest resiliency was found in Hillsborough County, with a score of 13 in the high category. With this data, insurers can more accurately assess risk exposure. Wind Resiliency can serve as a valuable tool, providing crucial insights into the potential risk exposure associated with various geographic locations.
For example, if the year 2005 was repeated in 2024– a year in which Hurricanes Katrina, Wilma, Rita, Dennis and Ophelia all made landfall in the U.S , the ground-up damage would approach $160 billion (a gross loss of $117 billion).
A Game of Chance
The Hurricane Wind, Coastal Storm Surge and Hurricane Wind Resiliency Scores categorize properties by their level of risk but cannot quantify the probability or amount of monetary loss in the event of a hurricane. A different type of model is necessary to calculate the loss potential of a storm on a single property or portfolio of properties. This information is paramount in risk management and mitigation strategies as it informs underwriting and business strategy.
There were few landfalling and damaging hurricanes in the U.S. in 2023 despite the record warm Atlantic Ocean SSTs and the resulting highly active season. With the exception of Hurricane Idalia, the U.S. had little tropical cyclone damage leading to a low catastrophe loss-year for the insurance industry.
Years with zero or low hurricane losses are quite common. The CoreLogic North Atlantic Hurricane Model histrocial scenario catalog extends back to the early 20th century. Figure 2 below shows the annual aggregated modeled ground-up damage and gross losses for each year in the historical scenario catalog (1900 - 2022) assuming the storms occurred today (i.e., holding exposure constant to today’s levels).
Ground-up damage (orange bars) represents modeled loss to all residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural type properties considered insurable. It does not consider insurance policy deductibles and limits. Generally, the insurer accepts risk above the deductible (i.e., the amount the policy owner is responsible for paying after an event) and up to the limit (sometimes less than the total reconstruction cost value of the property). The gross loss (blue bars) account for standard policy terms and reflect losses that the insurance industry would cover.
These losses include both damage from wind and storm surge.
Catastrophe models (or CAT models) simulate hundreds of thousands of hurricane events, including recreating historical storms, to quantify the full spectrum of potential losses to a given portfolio.
Figure 2: Modeled wind and storm surge losses of the actual events in the CoreLogic North Atlantic Hurricane Model historical catalog. The losses assume constant exposure equal to what exists in 2023. Source: CoreLogic, 2024
Nearly half of the 120-year long record consists of years with less than $10 billion of hurricane damage. Stated another way, the probability of a year with $10 billion or less in hurricane-generated damages is about 50% (half the year’s losses are greater than $10 billion and the other half less than $10 billion). If they occurred today, particularly damaging years like 2005 (Hurricanes Katrina, Wilma, Rita, Dennis and Ophelia) or 2017 (Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria) could cause wind and storm surge losses of approximately $160 billion and $47 billion, respectively. The exceedance probabilities losses like those that occurred in 2005-like and 2017 are less than 2% and 16%, respectively.
However, individual communities are the ones that feel hurricane impacts the most severely. The 1% exceedance probability loss for the country as a whole – spread out across several states - presents a much different picture than at the county level. The following sections will look at example storms from the CoreLogic North Atlantic Hurricane Model noting what the storms look like and the levels of loss they produce.
A Bad Year:
Miami-Dade, New York Counties and Harris Counties
Miami-Dade, Manhattan and Harris Counties are all familiar with hurricanes and tropical storms. The level of risk varies from county to county but for each it is imperative for each to plan accordingly as direct landfalls could be severe.
The region with the highest probability of a hurricane making landfall in the U.S. is Southeastern Florida, home to Miami-Dade County, followed by Harris and Manhattan counties. According to NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks Database, there have been 48 hurricanes (Category 1 or greater) within 60 nautical miles (nm) of the Miami-Dade County boundary since the beginning of the twentieth century - including well-known storms such as the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Andrew in 1992. There have been 28 and 9 hurricanes within 60 nm of Harris and Manhattan counties, respectively. This figure does not include notably destructive storms like Superstorm Sandy, which was an extratropical storm by landfall.
As noted previously in the report, all three counties have an inherent amount of risk, though for different reasons. Miami-Dade and Harris counties are in regions of the U.S. that see higher degrees of hurricane activity. Miami-Dade and Manhattan counties are heavily exposed to the coast and are susceptible to any storms, especially from a coastal flooding standpoint. There are a large number of buildings at risk to hurricane damage in all three counties.
The 1% exceedance probability loss, equivalent to a 1-in-100 year event, is an important metric to consider in risk management decisions, as many reinsurance decisions are based on this level of loss. Table 4 below presents the 1% exceedance probability hurricane (wind and storm surge, combined) ground-up damage and gross loss for each county, respectively. These numbers represent a level of loss that has a 1% chance of occurrence in each region in any given year.
Table 4: The 1% wind and storm ground-up damage and gross losses in Miami-Dade, Manhattan and Harris Counties. These losses have a 1% probability of occurring or being exceeded by hurricane-generated damage in any given year. Source: CoreLogic, 2024
A Gap in Coverage
The difference between the ground-up damage and gross losses in both Figure 1 and Table 4 point to an increasingly sizable problem in the U.S. when it comes to post-disaster recovery. Insurance is a key tool in the recovery process. It provides the necessary resources to build and recover. However, the difference in reconstruction cost value and insured value is widening. Coverage cannot keep up with the rising amount of risk, whether because of changes in natural disaster activity (e.g., climate change) or shifts in exposure (e.g., more development, people moving to disaster-prone areas like the coast).
This difference between ground-up damage and gross loss is the protection gap. It represents the dollar amount that either federal assistance or individual home and business owners need to spend from their own savings to rebuild. The downstream effects of which include crippling individuals’ future financial plans or additional assessments picked up by taxpayers and other policy holders.
Flooding and flood damage exemplifies the seriousness of the protection gap. Wind is covered under standard homeowners’ insurance policies, but flooding is often excluded. Homeowners who are required or wish to purchase flood insurance may do so through a separate policy from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), the private markets, or as additional coverage on their standard home insurance policy.
Table 5 shows the Harris County 1% exceedance probability of hurricane ground-up damage and gross loss by peril (e.g., wind and storm surge). The hurricane wind gross loss is closer to the ground-up damage, indicating that homeowners will have a smaller financial burden during recovery due to having insurance coverage. On the other hand, nearly 50% of storm surge flood damage in Harris County could go uninsured.
Reducing the protection gap is key to creating a more resilient society. Insurance remains one of the most important tools for recovery by sharing the financial burden of risk among many. Providing coverage is the primary purpose of an insurance company and CoreLogic remains committed to providing quality data and tools to measure risk effectively.
Harris County, Texas
Wind
% UNINSURED
Storm Surge
% UNINSURED
Table 5: Harris County 1% exceedance probability hurricane wind and storm surge ground-up damage and gross loss. Source: CoreLogic, 2024.